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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-10-07 02:03:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070002 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Corrected distance from Cozumel ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 84.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 84.5 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 31
2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 062035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 135.6W ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 135.6 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low tonight, and a trough of low pressure in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 062035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 135.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 9
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 062033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 84.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the province of La Habana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progresso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.1 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches to portions of the central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 106.6W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Norbert is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or be nearly stationary over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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