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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Public Advisory Number 32
2020-10-07 04:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 070245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 136.2W ABOUT 1675 MI...2695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 136.2 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph, and this general motion should continue through Wednesday afternoon. A turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed should begin late Wednesday and continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-10-07 04:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 070244 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 136.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 6
2020-10-07 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NORBERT'S INTENSITY HOLDS STEADY AS IT STALLS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 106.9W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 106.9 West. Norbert is moving toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or remain nearly stationary over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-07 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.6N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.2N 108.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 16.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-10-07 02:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070032 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Corrected distance from Cozumel ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 84.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 84.5 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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