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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 7
2020-10-06 10:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060854 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...DELTA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 81.3W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning westward along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to Dzilam. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum * Dzilam to Progresso A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 81.3 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected to begin later today through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands later this morning. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will be affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-10-06 10:53:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060853 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO DZILAM. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM * DZILAM TO PROGRESSO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 81.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 3
2020-10-06 10:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NORBERT... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 106.2W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 106.2 West. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected today, and Norbert is forecast to remain nearly stationary through midweek. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 29
2020-10-06 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060851 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 1100 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TENACIOUS MARIE REFUSES TO WEAKEN... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 134.3W ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 134.3 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-10-06 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060851 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 134.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 135.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.0N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 140.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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