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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-30 10:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 042 WTPZ23 KNHC 300836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 210SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 112.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-30 04:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 997 WTPZ33 KNHC 300232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM MARIE STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 110.4W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 110.4 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-30 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 300232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.6N 115.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 123.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 129.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 21.4N 132.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-29 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 292033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 109.5W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 109.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Marie could become a hurricane by Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-29 22:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 292032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 109.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 111.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.9N 117.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.2N 124.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.6N 128.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 21.4N 131.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 109.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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