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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-10-03 22:43:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 032043 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.3W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.3W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 127.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 128.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 129.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.9N 131.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 6
2020-10-03 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 87.7W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning north of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel, and discontinued all watches and warnings from Punta Allen southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 87.7 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest with decreasing forward speed is expected tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to move over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and pass near or north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast tonight and Sunday, followed by some re-intensification by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for the next several hours, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-03 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO... INCLUDING COZUMEL...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF PUNTA ALLEN TO DZILAM MEXICO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 87.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 87.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.3N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 88.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.1N 88.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 89.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 93.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-10-03 20:29:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 971 WTNT35 KNHC 031735 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 87.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for * North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 87.6 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move farther inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is likely through tonight while the center moves over land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin when the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Hurricane conditions could still occur within the Hurricane Warning area during the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and north of where the center crossed the coast. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should begin to subside later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 5
2020-10-03 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 87.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Allen to Cancun, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for * North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 87.3 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gamma is likely to be near or at hurricane strength when it makes landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A station at Cancun, Mexico, reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) within the past few hours. A station at Xcaret Park near Playa del Carmen recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Berg
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