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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-10-02 16:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA AND WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA * WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 85.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 87.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 88.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 84.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-02 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 021447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 124.3W ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 124.3 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible later today or tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg/Reinhart
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-02 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 021447 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 124.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 210SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 124.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 124.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/REINHART
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 13
2020-10-02 10:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020843 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 123.2W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 123.2 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected today, with weakening forecast to begin on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-02 10:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020843 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 124.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 126.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.9N 129.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 130.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 131.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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