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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-03 11:00:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030900 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 86.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE CONTINUES CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 126.4W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 126.4 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is forecast to begin weakening later today, and this weakening trend should continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030837 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-10-03 07:59:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 536 WTNT35 KNHC 030559 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.6 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later today. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later today. After landfall, slight weakening or little change in strength is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by later this morning, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 16
2020-10-03 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030237 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 125.7W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 125.7 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through most of the weekend. A turn toward the west-northwest is possible by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight, followed by weakening beginning on Saturday. This weakening trend will continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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