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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 35
2020-09-21 04:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 532 WTNT25 KNHC 210250 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO NOVA SCOTIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 63.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 360SE 360SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 63.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.9N 63.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. 34 KT...390NE 310SE 300SW 310NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.3N 64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 280SE 280SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 48.6N 59.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 57.4N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 63.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-21 04:46:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 ...BETA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 94.5W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF GALVESTON TEXAS ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 94.5 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night, and remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas overnight through early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-09-21 04:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210245 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 94.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 30SE 40SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 94.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N 95.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.5N 96.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.8N 96.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.1N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.1N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.9N 91.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 94.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Remnants of Wilfred Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-21 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Wilfred Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...WILFRED DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 47.4W ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Wilfred were located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 47.4 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Winds should continue to decrease over the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Wilfred. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-21 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210232 TCMAT3 REMNANTS OF WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.4W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 46.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 47.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON WILFRED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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