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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 26A
2020-08-26 13:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261150 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 700 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 91.4W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 91.4 West. Laura is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue today, followed by a north-northwestward motion tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland near those areas tonight or Thursday morning. Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and is forecast to continue strengthening into a category 4 hurricane later today. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. Laura is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Buoy 42395, located just east of Laura's eye, recently reported a sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h) and a wave height of 37 feet (11 meters). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the warning areas well in advance of Laura's center later today. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along small streams. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 26
2020-08-26 10:57:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260857 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 90.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.72 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Freeport to San Luis Pass Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 90.7 West. Laura is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue today, and a north-northwestward motion is forecast tonight. On the forecast track, Laura should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on this evening and move inland near those areas tonight or Thursday morning. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane today, and is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. Laura is becoming a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along small streams. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this evening through tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-08-26 10:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260856 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FREEPORT TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.4N 92.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.5W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.4N 93.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.4N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.3N 87.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 38.0N 74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 854 WTPZ23 KNHC 260848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 106.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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