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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-08-26 17:16:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 261515 CCA TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 CORRRECTED TO DENOTE INLAND AT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.0W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.0W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.5N 93.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.8N 92.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.6N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 48.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 92.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-26 16:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 261452 CCA TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 2...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 CORRECTED ADIVSORY NUMBER ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 106.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.1 West. The depression is temporarily drifting toward the east-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is forecast later today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-26 16:51:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 261451 CCA TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.1W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.1W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.1N 106.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 108.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.6N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 27
2020-08-26 16:51:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 502 WTNT33 KNHC 261451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...LAURA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 92.0W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. Laura is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwestward and north is expected later today and tonight. On the forecast track, Laura will approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland within that area tonight. The center of Laura is forecast to move over northwestern Louisiana tomorrow, across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening in expected and Laura is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane this afternoon. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the warning areas well in advance of Laura's center later today. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine Lake...10-15 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall makes landfall tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late today or tonight, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. RAINFALL: From this afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. By Friday into Saturday, Laura will produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys. This rainfall may lead to localized flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the entire U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 261444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 117.2W ABOUT 705 MI...1130 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 117.2 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the northeast near 2 mph (4km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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