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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-07-11 05:15:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110315 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 279 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-11 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH AND WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY...NEW YORK. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY NEW YORK TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 74.2W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 74.2W AT 11/0300Z...INLAND AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 74.3W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.6N 73.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 47.5N 71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 51.1N 68.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 74.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-11 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.0N 74.2W ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM NW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued south and west of East Rockaway, New York. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East Rockaway New York to Watch Hill Rhode Island including most of Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move across portions of southeastern New York tonight, then across western New England into southeastern Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as Fay moves farther inland, and the system is expected to become a post- tropical low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) over water to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area for the next several hours. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-07-11 01:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 102342 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 74.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located over eastern New Jersey near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western New England tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly over water to the east and southeast of the center. NOAA buoy 44065 recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 43 mph (68 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but widespread river flooding is not expected. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area through tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible this evening across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 17
2020-07-10 22:56:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102056 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 17...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Corrected issuance time zone to HST. ...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 115.5W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is forecast to become a remnant low in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kodama
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