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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 15
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100842 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 113.0W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 113.0 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with a gradual bend to the west is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina could become a hurricane later today, however, a weakening trend should begin by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100842 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-10 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 154 WTNT21 KNHC 100841 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 74.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-10 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 153 WTNT31 KNHC 100841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 74.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 74.8 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight or on Saturday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the northeast and southeast of the center. The Air Force plane reported a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area today and spread northward through the warning area tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-07-10 07:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 100535 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 74.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape May New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 74.9 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight or on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 8 inches along and near its track across the mid Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area today and spread northward through the warning area tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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