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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 24A
2020-06-07 19:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071751 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...CRISTOBAL SLOWS DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 89.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 89.9 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest late today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland across Louisiana late today through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and offshore oil platforms indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall. Gradual weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to the east of the center. During the past few hours, an oil rig located about 80 miles south of Mobile, Alabama, measured a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (103 km/h) an elevation of 53 ft. A Weatherflow site at Ship Island, Mississippi, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the eastern Gulf Coast, along with the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and northern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 24
2020-06-07 16:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071447 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 90.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 90.0 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest late today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland across Louisiana late today through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall. Gradual weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km), mainly to the east of the center. A Weatherflow site at Bayou Bienvenue, Louisiana, recently measured a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the eastern Gulf Coast, along with the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and northern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-06-07 16:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071445 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 90.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 89.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.2N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.6N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.2N 92.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.9N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.5N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.8N 87.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 52.6N 83.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 90.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 23A
2020-06-07 13:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 799 WTNT33 KNHC 071151 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS PASSING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 89.9W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 89.9 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest late today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast this afternoon, then move inland across Louisiana late today through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall, and weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of he center. A National Ocean Service station at the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) at an elevation of 78 feet (24 m). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast today and tonight. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the eastern Gulf Coast, along with the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and northern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 23
2020-06-07 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070839 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS REACH THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 90.1W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 90.1 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest late today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast today, then move inland across Louisiana late today through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall, and weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of he center. A National Ocean Service station at the Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h) at an elevation of 78 feet (24 m). The estimated minimum central pressure based on oil platform observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning this morning. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the eastern Gulf Coast, along with the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and northern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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