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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 14
2020-06-05 04:35:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... ...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER BY FRIDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 90.4W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch will likely be required for a portion of the area on Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located inland near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 90.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected overnight, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico on Friday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but slow strengthening is forecast to occur this weekend when Cristobal moves back over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-06-05 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 90.4W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 90.4W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.3N 90.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.3N 90.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.3N 90.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 32.6N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 37.3N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 90.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 13
2020-06-04 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 042040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 90.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area tonight or Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 90.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the east and northeast is expected tonight, and a subsequent generally northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification is expected to begin late Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-06-04 22:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 042039 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 90.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 90.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 90.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N 90.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.6N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.5N 90.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 34.0N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 90.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 12
2020-06-04 16:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041444 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 91.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 91.0 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion should continue through midday. A turn toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan... Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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