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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE-E (EP4/EP092016)
2016-07-31 22:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FAR FROM LAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 the center of NINE-E was located near 15.4, -121.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-31 18:23:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 311622 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 The first visible satellite images this morning indicate that a well-defined center has formed in association with the area of low pressure located well southwest of Mexico. This, along with the increase in convective organization, supports classifying this system as a tropical cyclone. A 1401Z SSMIS overpass indicated that the low-level center was located beneath the convective canopy, and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is currently situated over waters of 27-28C and the shear is expected to remain relatively low, so gradual strengthening is forecast through the first 48 hours. Later in the period, the cyclone will move over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should result in gradual weakening to remnant low status. The NHC intensity prediction is a little above the latest intensity consensus, but not as high as the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models. During the weakening phase, the NHC forecast is below the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/08. However, the track forecast reasoning appears relatively straightforward, as a mid-level ridge is expected to build westward to the north of the cyclone through the forecast period. This should result in a west-northwestward heading, with a bit of a westward bend in the track at days 4 and 5 as the shallow cyclone comes under the influence of the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is close to the middle of the guidance envelope near the multi-model consensus. This marks the formation of the eighth tropical cyclone in the basin in July, tying the record set in July of 1985. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1630Z 14.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.9N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 15.7N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 16.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1200Z 22.5N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Graphics
2016-07-31 18:20:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2016 16:20:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Jul 2016 16:19:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE-E (EP4/EP092016)
2016-07-31 18:20:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF JULY FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 9:30 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 the center of NINE-E was located near 14.2, -120.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-07-31 18:20:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 311619 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 ...EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF JULY FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 930 AM PDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 120.5W ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 930 AM PDT (1630 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 120.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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