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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-12 13:48:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVING BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Fred was located near 20.7, -74.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-08-12 13:48:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 542 WTNT31 KNHC 121148 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVING BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 74.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 80 MI...175 KM NE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Kevin Graphics
2021-08-12 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 08:38:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 08:38:56 GMT
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Tropical Depression Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-12 10:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120838 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Kevin Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Kevin is barely a tropical cyclone, as its exposed low-level center has been displaced over 100 n mi northeast of a few small bursts of convection for most of the night. In fact, the last semblance of organized convection with this sheared cyclone ended around 11/2100 UTC. If Kevin is unable to generate any organized convection soon, the system could be declared a post-tropical remnant low later this morning. Overnight ASCAT-A/B passes only showed 25 to 30-kt winds, primarily in the eastern semicircle of Kevin. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, which makes Kevin a tropical depression. Based on recent scatterometer fixes, it appears the broad center of Kevin is moving slightly more west-northwestward than before, or 295/10 kt. A general west-northwest to northwest motion should continue through dissipation as the system moves along the southwestern side of a deep-layer ridge. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the official NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly southward from the previous one based on the initial motion adjustment. The cyclone is already north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and it will move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment during the next couple of days. Thus, the development of new, organized convection near Kevin's center seems very unlikely. The official NHC forecast now shows Kevin degenerating to a remnant low later today, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low should gradually spin down over the next couple of days before dissipating this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.3N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 24.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 25.8N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 27.4N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 29.0N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-12 10:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Kevin was located near 22.3, -119.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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