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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Graphics
2015-09-28 04:58:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 02:58:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 02:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-28 04:40:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280239 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 Late-afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area located midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda has become well defined. Since the low has already had persistent and organized deep convection, the system is being declared a tropical depression. A 2312 UTC SSMI/S overpass indicated that the center of the depression has become at least partially exposed to the northwest of a large convective mass due to moderate northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, based on a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB. The depression is expected to be blasted by strong north-northwesterly or northerly winds associated with the tail of an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic beginning on Monday. In fact, global models show the shear being sufficiently strong enough to result in the cyclone either becoming a remnant low or dissipating within a few days. The intensity forecast is below the multi-model consensus through the forecast period, closest to the HWRF solution. A low- to mid- level ridge north and northeast of the cyclone is steering the lower half of the depression's circulation northwestward while increasing northwesterly winds aloft are opposing this motion. The net deep-layer mean flow is therefore providing for only a slow northwestward motion of 315/02 kt, a rather uncertain estimate considering the scatter of recent fixes. This synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next couple of days, resulting in a the cyclone's drifting west-northwestward or northwestward. The low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward in 2-3 days as a trough reaches the eastern seaboard of the United States, and the increasingly shallow system should turn northwestward and north-northwestward at a faster forward speed if it still exists. The track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 27.5N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 27.7N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 27.9N 69.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 28.2N 70.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 28.8N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 31.0N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-09-28 04:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 280238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-28 04:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 27 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.5, -68.7 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 1
2015-09-28 04:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280237 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 68.7W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 68.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward drift is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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