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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 32
2015-09-26 10:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 ...IDA TENACIOUSLY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 46.1W ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 46.1 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest and then west with a decrease in forward speed is forecast through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2015-09-26 10:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 260850 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 32
2015-09-26 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 260849 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 46.1W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 46.1W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 45.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.0N 46.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.4N 47.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 24.2N 48.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.6N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.6N 53.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 23.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 46.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-25 23:09:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2015 20:35:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Sep 2015 21:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 30
2015-09-25 22:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 252035 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 Not much has changed today and resilient Ida is still there. It consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a curved convective band to the east of the center. The initial intensity is estimated at 25 kt. The overall circulation is expected to decay as the depression continues to move within an environment of high shear and dry air. The depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours or sooner. The center has been moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt. A high pressure system is forecast to develop over the North Atlantic, and this high will force the shallow depression, or its remnants, to move toward the northwest, and then, as the high to the north intensifies, a sharp turn to the west or southwest should occur Sunday night or Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 24.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 25.0N 47.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 24.6N 48.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z 23.5N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 22.6N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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