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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-09 06:26:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090425 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the low pressure area east-southeast of Bermuda has developed a well-defined circulation with winds of at least 30 kt in the northeastern quadrant. In addition, a strong cluster of convection has been persisting in the eastern quadrant. Based on these developments, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. It should be noted that the system has a large radius of maximum winds more characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. However, data from the FSU phase space analysis and the strong convection suggest the system is more tropical than subtropical. The cyclone is currently nearly stationary. A northward motion should begin on Wednesday as a deep layer trough moves into the eastern United States and weakens the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is expected to enter the westerlies and turn toward the northeast after 48 hours, with this motion continuing until dissipation. The forecast track lies in the center of the track guidance envelope in good agreement with the various consensus models. An upper-level trough just west of the cyclone is currently providing upper-level difluence, and this is likely enhancing the convection. The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to become embedded in about 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear on the east side of the trough. While there is dry air entraining into the cyclone, the environment should allow for some slow strengthening through 72 hours while the system remains over warm water. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for strengthening in best agreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. After 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal system and lose its identity by 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0430Z 30.8N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 30.8N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 31.6N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 33.4N 61.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 36.0N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 43.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 48.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082015)
2015-09-09 06:25:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 12:30 AM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of EIGHT was located near 30.8, -61.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 1
2015-09-09 06:25:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090425 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1230 AM AST...0430 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 61.5W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1230 AM AST (0430 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 61.5 West. The depression is stationary and little motion is expected tonight. The depression is expected to move northward on Wednesday, with this motion continuing through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-09-09 06:25:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0430 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090425 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 0430 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 61.5W AT 09/0430Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 61.5W AT 09/0430Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 30.8N 61.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.6N 61.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.4N 61.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 36.0N 62.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 43.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 48.0N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 61.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-09-09 06:25:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0430 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 090425 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 0430 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 AT 0430Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) X(24) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 9(41) X(41) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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