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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2015-09-16 23:08:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2015 20:35:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2015 21:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-16 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 162033 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015 The satellite presentation of the depression has degraded during the past few hours, with dry air and southwesterly shear resulting in the convection become displaced from the low-level center. The convection itself has not become better organized, and has a rather linear shape to the east and northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The prospects for the cyclone to strengthen, or even survive, appear quite poor. The shear is forecast to increase markedly in the next 12 to 24 hours, and the shear in combination with dry air should result in the cyclone weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours. The NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by 5 days, in best agreement with the latest GFS forecast. The exposed low-level center is located about a degree to the west of the previous advisory estimate, with an initial motion of 310/07. The initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward adjustment to the track forecast this cycle of 1 to 2 degrees. The new NHC forecast lies between the shallow BAM and to the left of the rest of the model guidance in the short term given the sheared nature of the system and its current motion. After that time, the NHC forecast is close to the HWRF and GEFS ensemble mean and still left of the multi-model consensus aids. Given the current disorganized state of the depression, the track forecast is quite uncertain through the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 15.2N 44.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 15.9N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 17.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 18.0N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 19.3N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z 20.5N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z 21.5N 52.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2015-09-16 17:10:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2015 14:32:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2015 15:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-16 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 16 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 161434 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 1100 AM AST WED SEP 16 2015 Organized convection associated with the area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic has now increased to the point that the system is considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications and in agreement with earlier ASCAT wind data. Some southwesterly shear is already affecting the cyclone, with most of the convection displaced east and north of the estimated center position. The environment only becomes less favorable from this point forward, with the shear forecast to quickly increase in 12 to 24 hours and remain high through the remainder of the forecast period. In addition, the southwesterly flow aloft will bring dry mid- to upper-level air over the cyclone. As a result, only slight strengthening is shown in the NHC forecast following the trend of most of the intensity guidance. The cyclone is expected to weaken to a remnant low by 72 hours. After that time, the GFS and ECMWF models show the system weakening and perhaps opening up into a trough in about 5 days, so the official forecast shows dissipation at that time. The initial motion estimate is 340/07, as the depression is moving into a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This north- northwestward to northwestward motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by 96 hours as the shallow cyclone comes under the steering influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the middle of the guidance envelope and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.0N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.0N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.3N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 18.5N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 22.0N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 24.0N 50.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092015)
2015-09-16 16:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR FROM LAND IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of NINE was located near 15.0, -43.1 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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