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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-21 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210848 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND... LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 58.5W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 58.5W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.1N 60.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.6N 71.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 74.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.2N 78.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 58.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2020-08-21 10:46:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 08:46:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 09:32:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-21 10:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 210844 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 2(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) 6(46) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 10(46) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 13(38) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 14(33) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 10(29) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 35(37) 27(64) 3(67) 1(68) X(68) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BELIZE CITY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 34 1 13(14) 5(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-21 10:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210844 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Recent METOP-A/B ASCAT overpasses and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the depression's circulation is not well-defined. In fact, the scatterometer data revealed multiple swirls, particularly, one newly developed circulation near a recent strong burst of deep convection near the coast of Honduras. Highest sustained winds from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt. For this advisory, the initial position is an uncertain centroid position of the multiple surface centers and the intensity is held at 30 kt. A 53rd Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight is scheduled for this morning and will hopefully paint a clearer picture on the depression's location. Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours, especially in the north portion of the depression, so gradual strengthening is still expected before it makes landfall on the east side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. After that time, some weakening is forecast while the cyclone traverses the peninsula. The system is expected to enter the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico around the 60 hr period and restrengthen through the remainder of the forecast. Global models, however, are indicating increasing south-southwesterly shear as the cyclone enters the northwest portion of the gulf which could prevent it from reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall. For now, the forecast will reflect a low-end hurricane making landfall, similar to the HCCA intensity model. The new intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on a compromise of the various multi-model consensus aids. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. The depression is forecast to be steered generally northwestward during the next few days by a western extension of the atlantic subtropical ridge that stretches westward across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should result in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, with the system entering the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. I think it's worth noting that both the UKMET and the DWD, Germany ICON global models are showing some binary interaction between the depression and Tropical Depression Thirteen around the 96-120 hr period while both systems are situated in the Gulf of Mexico. If this scenario actually occurs, the interaction could delay or slow tropical depression Fourteen's landfall over the northwestern Gulf coast. The NHC forecast track is again adjusted a little to the right of the previous forecast and lies close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus solutions. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, through today. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 15.4N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 17.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 19.2N 86.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 20.7N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/0600Z 24.5N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 28.1N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 30.4N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-21 10:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 the center of Fourteen was located near 15.4, -83.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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