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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-26 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260849 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 The broad area of low pressure that the NHC has been tracking the past few days has become better defined based on a 0356Z ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass. Although the system is slightly elongated northeast-to-southwest, the center is well defined and deep convection has persisted west of the center despite strong easterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. Thus, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 13-E. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on scatterometer surface wind speeds of 30-32 kt, which are consistent with T2.0/30-kt satellite classifications from TAFB-SAB. The initial motion estimate is slowly north-northeastward or 025/04 kt. The depression is embedded within an east-to-west oriented cyclonic gyre with a high-amplitude mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. These gyre will cause the cyclone to move slowly northward today and northwestward on Thursday, with the ridge acting as a poleward block and forcing to system to turn west-northwestward to westward on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday, and pass near or just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur on Friday and Saturday. The NHC official track forecast closely follows the simple consensus model TVCE, and lies a little to the left or west of the corrected-consensus model HCCA and the ECMWF model tracks. Strong easterly shear is forecast to persist through the next 24 hours, so little if any strengthening is expected during that time. In fact, convection is likely to erode a little during the day today, and then redevelop closer to the center tonight when the shear begins to abate somewhat. In the 36-60 hour period, the shear is forecast to weaken considerably from the northeast, allowing for some slight strengthening to occur. However, the intensity is not expected to increase to more than 35-40 kt, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains remaining offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. For those reason, a tropical warning has not been issued for southwestern Mexico at this time. The official intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA, HWRF, and ECMWF models intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.5N 106.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2020-08-26 10:49:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 08:49:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 08:49:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260848 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 854 WTPZ23 KNHC 260848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 106.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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