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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-20 22:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 the center of Fourteen was located near 14.3, -81.0 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-20 22:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 202057 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 81.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla and for the Bay Islands. The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, may be required later this evening or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 81.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-20 22:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 202057 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 10(27) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 26(45) 1(46) 1(47) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GUANAJA 34 X 5( 5) 23(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-20 22:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 202056 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS...INCLUDING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 81.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 81.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 80.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.7N 83.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.6N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 85.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.3N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.1N 89.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 81.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-20 22:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202053 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 Recent late afternoon visible satellite imagery has shown evidence of a low-level swirl that is racing away from the persistent area of deep convection. It is unclear if that is the only center of circulation or a swirl rotating around the broader circulation. The initial position for this advisory is a compromise between the earlier estimated center location and the swirl seen in satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/18 kt. The cyclone is located south of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to build westward over the western Atlantic through early next week. This ridge should steer the system west-northwestward over the next several days, and the suite of dynamical track models continue to be agreement on this overall scenario. The lastest NHC track foreast is similar to the previous advisory and again lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. It should be noted that since the system is still lacking in organization, there could be some center reformations that result in some shifts in the track forecast. Although the depression has changed little in strength since it formed yesterday, the overall environment ahead of the system favors gradual strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm water and in an area of light to moderate vertical wind shear. Most of the guidance suggests a little more favorable upper-level wind pattern once the system is north of the Greater Antilles, but a track farther south would result in more land interaction, which increases the intensity forecast uncertainty. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly slower rate of strengthening over the next couple of days, but is unchanged at the latter periods. The overall confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.7N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 17.5N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 20.9N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 22.2N 74.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 25.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 28.3N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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