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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-17 16:48:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 171448 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Deep convection has intensified over the small area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for several days. Both SAB and TAFB estimates indicate that there is now enough organized thunderstorm activity to initiate advisories on a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed of 30 kt matches the overnight scatterometer data and the subjective Dvorak estimates. The initial motion is an uncertain 335/8 kt, with steering provided by a distant low-level ridge to the east. The cyclone is forecast to gradually turn toward the northwest and west-northwest during the next several days as it runs into the southwestern side of a mid- latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. The biggest complication is Tropical Storm Lorena to the northeast, which some of the model guidance, such as the 6Z GFS, shows a binary interaction with at longer term, which could induce a more northward motion. While I can't rule that out, the forecast will stay closer to the models that show less interaction, such as the more westward HWRF and ECMWF solutions, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend of those models. While almost all of the guidance indicates strengthening of this depression into a hurricane in a few days, this forecast is problematic because of the proximity to Lorena. Convective outflow from Lorena could induce more easterly shear than is currently forecast if the tracks get closer together. For now, since the cyclones are forecast to remain a fair distance from one another, this wind speed prediction assumes that the low-shear environment in most of the models materializes, and the forecast follows the corrected-consensus intensity guidance HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 11.9N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2019-09-17 16:47:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 14:47:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 14:47:56 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-09-17 16:47:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 171447 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 49(50) 15(65) X(65) 2(67) 1(68) X(68) 15N 110W 50 X 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 1(24) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 33(45) 18(63) 4(67) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 5(30) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 17(30) 9(39) 5(44) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 14(30) 6(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-17 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 11.9, -108.2 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-09-17 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 171447 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable upper-level environment. The only negative factor for intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models. Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest ECMWF. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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