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Tropical Depression Fernand Graphics
2019-09-04 22:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:34:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:34:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-04 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042033 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Fernand Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Fernand moved inland a few hours ago, and the surface center is already showing signs of becoming poorly defined. The intensity is now estimated at 30 kt, assuming weakening has occurred since the cyclone moved inland. This makes Fernand a Tropical Depression. The depression should move westward or west-northwestward for the next 12 h or so while it continues to weaken, and it could dissipate as soon as tonight. Although the winds have decreased and the depression will likely dissipate soon, Fernand is still producing substantial convection and continues to pose a significant rain threat to northeast Mexico. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be possible through Thursday, even after Fernand dissipates. Please consult products from you local weather service for more information on the potential rainfall hazard. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 24.4N 98.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-09-04 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 042033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072019 2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fernand (AT2/AL072019)
2019-09-04 22:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FERNAND PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 the center of Fernand was located near 24.4, -98.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fernand Public Advisory Number 7
2019-09-04 22:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 042033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fernand Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019 ...FERNAND PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 98.3W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NW OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Puerto Altamira to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fernand was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 98.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. A steady decrease in winds is anticipated and Fernand will likely dissipate tonight or early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Thursday: Northeast Mexico: Tamaulipas and Central/Southern Nuevo Leon...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Greatest amounts in the Sierra Madre Oriental. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Northern Nuevo Leon and Southern Coahuila: 2 to 5 inches. United States: South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 6 inches. WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the northeast Mexico and southern Texas coast through tonight. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible across far South Texas through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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