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Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 11

2017-09-17 16:47:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171446 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...LEE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 36.7W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 36.7 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Lee could become a remnant low by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Advisory Number 11

2017-09-17 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 171446 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 36.7W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 36.7W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 36.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.2N 37.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.8N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 41.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.7N 42.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.5N 45.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 36.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics

2017-09-16 19:31:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 17:31:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 15:38:25 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-16 19:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Sep 16 the center of Fifteen was located near 11.9, -51.6 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 1A

2017-09-16 19:30:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161730 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 51.6W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Guadeloupe * Dominica * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better organized and is now classified as a tropical depression. At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was centered near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 51.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph (30 km/h). A slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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