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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-09-15 22:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152039 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A cluster of deep convection, albeit small, has become more concentrated near the center of circulation, indicating that the shear has diminished. However, a recent ASCAT pass indicated that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. The lower shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow the depression to gradually strengthen over the next couple of days, although since dry air has been ingested into the circulation, that intensification will probably be slow. The new NHC forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity compared to the previous forecast, following the latest model trends. Weakening is likely by days 4 and 5, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at the end of the forecast period due to stronger shear and marginal sea surface temperatures. The depression has slowed down and is moving westward, or 270/3 kt. The subtropical ridge is expected to push the depression west- southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, but after that time, a break in the ridge will allow the cyclone to turn northward through day 3. A re-establishment of the ridge should cause the cyclone to turn back toward the west on days 4 and 5. There were no significant changes required on this forecast package, and the NHC forecast generally lies close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.0N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 16.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.7N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 18.4N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-15 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL HAS 35-MPH WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 16.0, -125.3 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 17
2017-09-15 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 152038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL HAS 35-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 125.3W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 125.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow west-southwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the west and then north on Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2017-09-15 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 152038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 4 7(11) 6(17) 4(21) 2(23) 1(24) 1(25) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 1(17) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-09-15 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 152037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.5N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N 126.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 126.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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