je.st
news
Tag: tropical depression
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-16 11:01:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 09:01:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 09:01:09 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-09-16 10:53:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160853 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 An ASCAT pass just before 0600 UTC indicated that the depression has weakened a little bit. Winds of only around 25 kt were present, and since the depression lacks a true inner core, I don't believe that undersampling is a big concern at this time. The initial intensity has therefore been lowered to 25 kt. It is beginning to seem unlikely that the depression will become a tropical storm at any time. The mid-level humidity and SSTs seem sufficient to only support continued pulsating convection and none of the guidance really shows significant strengthening. Since the environment is not expected to change for the next 3 days, the new NHC intensity forecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression. Sometime between days 4 and 5, most of the dynamical models show the cyclone becoming a remnant low, though it could happen a little sooner than that. The depression has continued to drift slowly westward. There is no change to the forecast reasoning, and all of the models continue to show very little movement throughout the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, and doesn't show the depression moving faster than 3 kt until after it becomes a remnant low around day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 15.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.1N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 17.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2017-09-16 10:53:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160853 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-16 10:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...WEAK DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.8, -126.0 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 19
2017-09-16 10:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160853 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ...WEAK DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 126.0W ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 126.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Very little motion is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Sites : [829] [830] [831] [832] [833] [834] [835] [836] [837] [838] [839] [840] [841] [842] [843] [844] [845] [846] [847] [848] next »