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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-14 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140249 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 ...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 53.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A motion towards the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-14 04:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 941 WTNT21 KNHC 140249 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.4N 81.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.8N 83.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 85.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.8N 86.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.2N 86.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.6N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 37.5N 84.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 80.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-14 04:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 315 WTNT22 KNHC 140248 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 53.8W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 56.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N 60.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 66.2W...INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.9N 68.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.6N 70.4W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.7N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.3N 78.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 53.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-14 01:55:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 13 the center of Seven was located near 15.6, -53.1 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-08-14 01:55:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 132355 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 Corrected to include Anguilla in the changes with this advisory section ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 53.1W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and Sint Eustatius. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.1 West. The depression is moving quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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