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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-16 05:01:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 643 WTNT43 KNHC 160301 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 A small well-defined low pressure system located just east-northeast of Bermuda has produced persistent deep convection since this morning. Radar imagery from Bermuda along with geostationary and polar orbiting microwave satellite data show that the convection is sufficiently well organized to meet the definition for a tropical cyclone. Therefore advisories have been started on Tropical Depression Eight. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on believable winds near that value in a pair of recent ASCAT overpasses. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were a little higher, so this estimate could be slightly conservative. Confidence in the forecast is reasonably high for the next 48 to 72 h. The depression should make a slow clockwise turn around Bermuda, steered by a mid-level ridge currently centered off the coast of the Carolinas. Warm SSTs should provide ample fuel to support at least slight strengthening during this period, despite expected northerly shear, and this is shown by all of the intensity guidance. The NHC forecast is very near the multi-model consensus for both track and intensity through that period. Beyond 72 h, the track and intensity models diverge quickly. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models rapidly intensify the system to major hurricane strength. A stronger, deeper vortex would likely be steered generally westward through the end of the forecast period, influenced by a deeper-layer steering flow. However, the global models have a much weaker, shallower system which turns northward, and then possibly accelerates northeastward by day 5. As a result, the spread in the track guidance is nearly 800 n mi by day 5, with the GFS and HWRF taking the extreme positions to the northeast and southwest, respectively. The official track forecast takes a middle approach, and is between the various consensus aids at days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly more conservative, and is below the consensus at the end of the period. Significant changes to the forecast may be required in subsequent advisory packages. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 33.2N 62.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 32.4N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 31.5N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 31.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 31.0N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 31.0N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 32.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 33.5N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-16 05:01:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 160300 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 3 9(12) 12(24) 10(34) 8(42) 3(45) 3(48) BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-16 05:00:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Eight was located near 33.2, -62.7 with movement S at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-16 05:00:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160300 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 62.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.7 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move east and south of Bermuda during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-16 05:00:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 160259 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY: THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.7W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 175 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.7W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.4N 62.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.1N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.0N 64.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.0N 66.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 33.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 62.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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