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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-13 22:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132052 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 Over the past few hours, the system moved just to the north of a buoy owned by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. The buoy's winds backed from northwest to west to south, indicating that the system has a closed surface circulation. In addition, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T2.0, and the system is therefore being designated as a tropical depression on this advisory. Maximum winds remain 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data and the Dvorak estimates. The circulation has closed off despite the depression moving quickly westward (275 degrees) at about 19 kt. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48-60 hours, with the depression being driven quickly westward across the Leeward Islands and toward the Greater Antilles by ridging to the north. After 60 hours, there is considerably more spread, with the regional dynamical models keeping the system farther south over the Caribbean Sea, and most of the other models indicating a turn toward the west-northwest, following a track similar to Tropical Depression Fred. The NHC track forecast generally favors the latter scenario and is very close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. During the next 2 days, the depression is expected to move beneath an upper-level ridge axis, which should allow the deep-layer shear to fall below 10 kt, with the system also moving over warmer waters and through an environment of increased moisture. However, the depression's fast motion, as well as the possible development of some mid-level westerly shear, could stunt the rate of strengthening. Due to these conflicting factors, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the conservative side and is not quite as high as the solutions shown by the SHIPS and HCCA models. The HWRF model is quite aggressive, bringing the depression to hurricane strength by day 3, but that model is an extreme outlier compared to the other guidance. After 48 hours, the current forecast takes the center of the depression over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, a scenario that would cause weakening and suppress the system's intensity. As is typically the case, the system could get stronger than shown in the official forecast if it ends up moving over less land, or dissipate entirely if it moves over land for too long. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. The risk of strong winds will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.9N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.4N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.0N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 17.7N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 18.4N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.0N 70.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA 96H 17/1800Z 20.9N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 18/1800Z 23.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-13 22:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 13 the center of Seven was located near 15.4, -51.8 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-13 22:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 132052 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 51.8W ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Monday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-13 22:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 132052 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) 1(21) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 1(31) X(31) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 10(38) X(38) X(38) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 27(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SABA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 24(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 18(18) 19(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 27(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-13 22:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 615 WTNT22 KNHC 132051 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF SINT MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SINT MAARTEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.9N 54.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N 58.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 61.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N 65.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 70.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 74.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 79.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 51.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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