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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-08-23 16:54:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231454 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Laura continues to produce a large area of deep convection to the south and southeast of the estimated center location. The center has not been easy to locate this morning, but the low-cloud motions seen in GOES-16 one-minute visible imagery, along with surface observations, suggest that the center is just west of the west coast of Haiti. Data from a NOAA P-3 aircraft that has flown a tail-Doppler radar mission along the southern and northern coasts of Hispaniola this morning found maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity has been set at 45 kt. Little change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours while Laura moves near or over Cuba. When the center of Laura emerges over the Gulf of Mexico Monday night, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive for strengthening, and once the circulation recovers from its trek over land, deepening is anticipated. Warm water and a very favorable upper-level wind pattern are expected to allow for steady intensification until Laura reaches the northern Gulf coast, and with landfall expected between the 72 and 96 h forecast points, the system could be somewhat stronger than explicitly indicated below. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus models. Although the center of Laura was been difficult to track while it passed over Hispaniola, the estimated motion is west-northwestward at about 18 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Laura west-northwestward for the next couple of days. The track guidance has continued to nudge southward during the first 36 hours and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly, taking the storm closer to the southern coast of Cuba. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should allow Laura to maintain a west-northwestward motion until it approaches the central Gulf, where a northwestward motion is expected to begin as the storm nears the western periphery of the ridge. The dynamical models have trended toward stronger ridging over the eastern Gulf, resulting in a westward shift in the guidance. The NHC track forecast has been moved westward at 72-96 hours, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track forecast at the longer range as future adjustments will likely be required, and storm hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the central Bahamas and Andros Island tonight and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on Monday. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco earlier in the week. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 19.2N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR CUBA 36H 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2020-08-23 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 231454 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 2(20) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 2(22) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 5(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 3(27) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 15(66) 1(67) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 11(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 6(38) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 4(40) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 10(48) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 7(49) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 31(41) 6(47) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 28(66) 2(68) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) 1(39) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 14(44) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 11(53) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) 8(57) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 40(58) 4(62) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 4(30) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 10(52) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 8(53) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 4(25) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 43(49) 7(56) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 4(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 38(51) 3(54) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 3(27) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 5(43) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 4(39) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 27(42) 2(44) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 40(47) 6(53) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 4(26) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 2(33) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 2(26) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 44(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 18(18) 29(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 4 58(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) CAMAGUEY 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 92 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO PLATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) 1(22) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 15

2020-08-23 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 231454 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 73.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Andros Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic and Haiti means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area during the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 73.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Recent data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The strongest winds are primarily occuring over water to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near Cuba. Strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas, and Jamaica. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Florida Keys. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area tonight through Monday evening. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-08-23 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231453 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * ANDROS ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 73.2W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 73.2W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 73.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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