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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-22 16:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 221441 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 66.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 66.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 66.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-22 13:47:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 11:47:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 09:24:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-22 13:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISORGANIZED LAURA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 22 the center of Laura was located near 17.7, -66.0 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-08-22 13:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221147 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...DISORGANIZED LAURA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 66.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern Cuba later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 66.0 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches are expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-22 11:26:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220926 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 Corrected status at 96 and 120 h Surface observations and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate that the center of Laura is currently over the Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and the adjacent Caribbean waters. Overall, the system has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with strong convection forming not far from the center to the east and southeast and a somewhat better defined circulation. However, the central area of light winds is quite large, and there is evidence of several vorticity centers rotating around the mean storm center. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the maximum winds had decreased to 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/18. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy, as a subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand westward, causing Laura to move quickly west-northwestward for the next 3 days or so. After that, the storm should turn northwestward toward the western edge of the ridge over the northern Gulf coast. While the dynamical models are in good agreement with the general scenario, there is an unusual amount of cross track spread. The track guidance is spread from the Florida Keys to the western end of Cuba as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and the models have potential landfall locations along the Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to the middle Texas coast. One complicating factor is the potential for interaction with Tropical Storm Marco, although at this time the model guidance suggests the storms will stay far enough apart to prevent direct interaction. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hr, then it is shifted a bit to the west after that time. The new track lies near the various consensus models. Laura is moving into an environment of light shear, and combined with the somewhat improved organization it suggests the storm should strengthen. However, the forecast track takes the center over Hispaniola and then down the length of Cuba, which should at least slow any intensification. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast which shows slow strengthening. Over the Gulf of Mexico, warm water and a likely favorable shear environment should allow Laura to become a hurricane, a scenario now supported by much of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 17.6N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.2N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.1N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 20.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 23.1N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 26/0600Z 27.5N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 31.0N 92.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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