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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-31 22:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 312047 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 20.0W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 20.0W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 19.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.3N 21.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.5N 23.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 25.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 20.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-07-31 19:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 311751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 75.2W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 75.2 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the day or so followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected later today and tonight, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions in the southeastern Bahamas will spread northwestward into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida beginning Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. From Friday night through Monday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread into the central northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-31 17:01:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 311501 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 After a brief convective hiatus earlier this morning, a small burst of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -80C to -85C have developed over the previously exposed low-level center. Dry downslope air coming off of Hispaniola wrapped into the center, eroding the inner-core convection somewhat. However, a surge of moist southwesterly inflow moving through the Windward Passage now appears to be fueling the recent increase in convection. The upper-level outflow has improved somewhat in the western semicircle but still remains restricted due to some modest southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of near 70 kt and an increase in the central pressure of 992 mb, which is based on a dropsonde report of 995 mb with 26-kt surface winds. Isaias is continuing on a steady northwestward motion of 305/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so as the hurricane rounds the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores High. A gradual turn to the north-northwest and north is expected by 48-60 hours due to a break in the ridge developing in response to a central U.S. shortwave trough digging into the southeastern United States. The timing and strength of this trough will determine how far west Isaias moves before the hurricane turns northward. The 06Z UKMET and and GFS have shifted westward, closer to the Florida coast, which is similar to the westward shift seen in the 00Z ECMWF model fields. By 72 hours, the hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating northeastward, possibly passing over eastern North Carolina by day 4 and across eastern New England on day 5. As a result of the westward shift in the latest model guidance, the new NHC forecast track has also been shifted farther west closer to the southeastern U.S. coast, and lies a little to the west of the consensus models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA. The westward shift in the track forecast has required the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for portions of the Florida east coast. Although some slight weakening has occurred, radar data from the aircraft and the Bahamas radar indicate about a 60-percent eyewall has formed in the northeastern semicircle, which is an indication that the cyclone is trying to reorganize. As a result, strengthening is still expected during the next day or so, especially tonight and Saturday morning during the convective maximum period when the hurricane will be moving over the Gulf Stream where SSTs are 30C or warmer and while the vertical remains reasonably low. Increasing southwesterly shear could cause a gradual decrease in intensity over the weekend. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a little above the available model guidance out of respect for continuity. Key Messages: 1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect south and east-central Florida late Friday night, and the eastern Carolinas by early next week, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor river flooding is possible in the Carolinas early next week. 2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Storm surge watches or warnings could be needed for part of this area this afternoon. 4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge beginning late this weekend along the northeastern Florida coast and spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early next week. Interests along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 21.7N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 24.8N 78.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 26.3N 79.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 27.7N 79.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 29.2N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 31.6N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 36.4N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-07-31 16:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 311448 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 2(25) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 3(27) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 2(34) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 2(28) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 23(35) 1(36) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) 1(35) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20(34) 1(35) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) 1(27) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) 1(32) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 3(24) 1(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 3(29) X(29) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 17(27) 2(29) X(29) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 14(14) 26(40) 14(54) 1(55) X(55) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 13(13) 26(39) 14(53) 1(54) X(54) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 23(54) 8(62) 1(63) X(63) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X 7( 7) 41(48) 15(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 15(15) 13(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 11(11) 34(45) 10(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X 5( 5) 18(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 26(27) 48(75) 6(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 35(36) 9(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 14 74(88) 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 46(46) 8(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ANDROS 34 40 53(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ANDROS 50 1 63(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ANDROS 64 X 28(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GREAT EXUMA 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GREAT EXUMA 50 71 9(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GREAT EXUMA 64 10 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN SALVADOR 34 66 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 14
2020-07-31 16:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 311447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...SQUALLY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 74.5W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the Volusia-Brevard County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee. The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet * Lake Okeechobee Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 74.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the day or so followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight, and Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions in the southeastern Bahamas will spread northwestward into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida beginning Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola. From Friday night through Monday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread into the central northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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