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Hurricane Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-07-25 16:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF SARGENT TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * MESQUITE BAY TO SARGENT TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.9N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.4N 99.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.9N 100.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.3N 102.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-07-25 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 251432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 16
2020-07-25 16:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 251432 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 ...GONZALO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 60.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 60.5 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected today and tonight. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands later today. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela. Gonzalo is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches over the southern Windward Islands, the Leeward Antilles, and the remainder of far northern Venezuela. This includes Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in the mountainous terrain of Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela, which may lead to flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Hanna Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-07-25 14:21:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251221 CCB TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 10A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 700 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Corrected header ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS FIND HANNA HAS BECOME THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 96.0W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barra el Mezquital Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * Mesquite Bay to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna. Interests in northeastern Mexico should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hanna was located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 96.0 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km), and this motion should continue through this morning. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected by tonight and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area this afternoon or early this evening. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before Hanna makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (40 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX...2 to 4 ft Baffin Bay to Sargent TX...including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...3 to 5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1 to 3 ft North of Sargent to High Island TX...including Galveston Bay...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area later this morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and overnight over parts of the lower to middle Texas coastal plain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Update statements will begin at 800 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 15A
2020-07-25 13:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 251132 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 800 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 ...HEAVY RAIN FROM GONZALO NEARING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.3N 59.8W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Barbados has canceled the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 59.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands later today. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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