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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-07-25 07:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 692 WTNT33 KNHC 250534 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 100 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 ...HANNA LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 95.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barra el Mezquital Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * Mesquite Bay to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna. Interests in northeastern Mexico should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 95.3 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion should continue through this morning. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected by tonight and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area this afternoon or early this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Hanna is expected to become a hurricane before the cyclone makes landfall today. Rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay to Sargent TX...including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...3 to 5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay TX...1 to 3 ft North of Sargent to High Island TX...including Galveston Bay...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area later this morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. Along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible across portions of the Texas coast, beginning this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-07-25 07:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250532 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 200 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 57.8W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago could lead to areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-25 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250249 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Hanna continues to strengthen over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and Doppler radar images indicate that the inner core continues to become better organized and the outer bands are now more symmetrical around the center. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Hanna and have found maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 72 kt and maximum SFMR winds of 51 kt. Based on this data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory. The aircraft has also reported a minimum pressure of 992 mb, which is a 8 mb drop from the flight earlier today. The NOAA aircraft data indicate that the center has moved a little south of west during the past few hours, and the storm is now a little south of the previous forecast track. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the central U.S. should cause the storm to continue to move generally westward, taking the center across the southern Texas coast tomorrow afternoon or early evening. After landfall, the storm is expected to turn to the west-southwest or southwest across extreme southern Texas and northern Mexico, and that motion should continue until the system dissipates. Hanna still has another 18 hours or so to strengthen as it remains in light wind shear conditions and over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Since the structure of the system continues to improve, it seems likely that Hanna will reach hurricane intensity before it makes landfall. The peak intensity could be higher than what is shown in the intensity forecast below since landfall is expected to occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast times. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and Hanna is expected to dissipate on Monday over the rugged terrain of northern Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance for the next 24 h. Key Messages 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday morning. 3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 27.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 27.1N 96.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 27.0N 97.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/1200Z 26.6N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/0000Z 25.9N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 27/1200Z 25.2N 102.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-07-25 04:48:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 250248 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GALVESTON TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT O CONNOR 34 6 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 36(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 55(56) 6(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 90 5(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 270N 960W 50 66 8(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) GFMX 270N 960W 64 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MCALLEN TX 34 X 29(29) 22(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MCALLEN TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 38(38) 12(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) HARLINGEN TX 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 22(22) 6(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 9
2020-07-25 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250248 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT HANNA IS STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE TOMORROW IN SOUTHERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 94.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended southward to Port Mansfield Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to High Island Texas. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning north of Barra el Mezquital to the Mouth of Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barra el Mezquital Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * Mesquite Bay to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna. Interests in northeastern Mexico should also monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 94.8 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion should continue through Saturday morning. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected Saturday night and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Hanna is expected to become a hurricane before the cyclone makes landfall on Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay to Sargent TX...including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...3 to 5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay TX...1 to 3 ft North of Sargent to High Island TX...including Galveston Bay...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. Along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible across portions of the Texas coast, beginning Saturday morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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