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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-07-25 01:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242356 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 700 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...HANNA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 94.4W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 195 MI...305 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay Texas * Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 94.4 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should continue through Saturday morning. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected Saturday night and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Hanna is expected to become a hurricane before the cyclone makes landfall on Saturday. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay to Sargent TX...including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay TX...1 to 3 ft North of Sargent to High Island TX...including Galveston Bay...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area later tonight or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible, mainly overnight, across portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana Coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 13A
2020-07-25 01:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 242354 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 800 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...GONZALO CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 56.3W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 56.3 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-24 22:59:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242059 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Satellite imagery, along with Doppler radar data from Houston and Corpus Christi, indicate that Hanna has been getting better organized over the past several hours. Curved banding features have improved and a banding eye has developed in the radar data. The NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reported SFMR winds of 43-45 kt on its last outbound leg and a ship D5DE5 just east of the center reported an elevated wind speed of 51 kt at 1400Z. Based on these data, along with an estimated pressure of 999 mb from surrounding oil rigs, the initial intensity has been conservatively increased to 45 kt. Reconnaissance and radar fix data indicate that Hanna has turned westward, and the motion is now 275/09 kt. Hanna is forecast to move generally westward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours, with landfall expected along the south-central coast of Texas within the hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening. The new NHC forecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to an average of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Given the improved internal structure noted in radar imagery, along with SSTs of at least 30 deg C and an impressive outflow pattern, increased frictional convergence as the cyclone moves closer to the coast and the approaching nocturnal convective maximum should support additional strengthening, and Hanna is now forecast to become a hurricane prior to making landfall. The NHC forecast of 65 kt in 24 hours is between the latest HWRF model run, which brings Hanna to 70 kt just prior to landfall, and the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN, which are just below hurricane strength. Due to Hanna forecast to reach hurricane strength, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for portions of the Texas coast. Key Messages 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday morning. 3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 27.3N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 27.4N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 27.3N 97.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 27.0N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 26/1800Z 26.6N 100.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 27/0600Z 25.6N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-24 22:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242050 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...HANNA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 94.3W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Baffin Bay northward to Mesquite Bay, Texas. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Baffin Bay to Sargent, Texas, including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay and Matagorda Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Sargent Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay Texas * Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 94.3 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should continue through Saturday morning. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected Saturday night and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next 24 hours, and Hanna is expected to become a hurricane before the cyclone makes landfall. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches) based on nearby oil rig reports. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay to Sargent TX...including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay TX...1 to 3 ft North of Sargent to High Island TX...including Galveston Bay...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area tonight or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two will be possible, mainly overnight, across portions of the upper Texas and Louisiana Coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-07-24 22:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 242050 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 42 3(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 950W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 19(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 32(32) 18(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 33(33) 28(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 21 51(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GFMX 270N 960W 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 5( 5) 30(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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