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Tropical Depression Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-05-27 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 272033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020 2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 80.3W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 80.3W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 41.7N 79.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 80.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Bertha Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-05-27 19:46:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 621 WTNT32 KNHC 271746 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 200 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 ...BERTHA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 80.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bertha was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 80.2 West. Bertha is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn to the north along with an increase in forward speed on Thursday. On the forecast track, Bertha will move across northern South Carolina later today and into central North Carolina by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly along the coast to the east of the center. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Bertha is expected to become a remnant low tonight. At Oyster Landing, SC a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was reported at 1245 PM EDT The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across eastern and central South Carolina into west central to far southeastern North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Given very saturated antecedent conditions, this rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding, aggravate and prolong ongoing river flooding, and produce rapid out of bank rises on smaller rivers. WIND: Gusty winds will continue over eastern South Carolina for the remainder of today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-05-27 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271432 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 The circulation of Bertha remained compact yet well-defined through landfall, which occurred around 930 AM EDT near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. Buoy data around that time indicated that maximum sustained winds had increased to around 45 kt. Although the center has moved inland, a strong rain band with onshore flow continues to slowly migrate northward along the South Carolina coast. Therefore it is anticipated that tropical-storm-force winds will remain possible in the warning area over the next few hours. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, then weaken to a remnant low tonight as the center moves farther inland. Model guidance is in good agreement on taking the weakening cyclone north to north-northwestward through tonight, followed by a turn to the north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed later on Thursday. This official track is only slightly east of the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across portions of eastern to central South Carolina into west central to far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia. Ongoing river flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region. 2. Bertha is expected to continue to bring tropical storm winds to portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area over next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 33.3N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 35.2N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 38.8N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Beven
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Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-05-27 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 271432 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020 1500 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 79.5W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 79.5W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 35.2N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 38.8N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Bertha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-05-27 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 271432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020 1500 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN
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