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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-15 16:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151446 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 66.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 67.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 69.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 71.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.3N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 76.6W...NEAR N. COAST CUBA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N 84.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N 89.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 66.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Linda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2021-08-15 16:32:58| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021
Hurricane Linda Public Advisory Number 22
2021-08-15 16:32:28| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...LINDA TAKING ON ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK... Location: 19.0°N 120.2°W Max sustained: 115 mph Moving: W at 12 mph Min pressure: 962 mb Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Aug 15 2021
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-08-15 16:32:28| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021
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Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 23A
2021-08-15 13:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151153 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF FRED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 84.6W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 84.6 West. While the center has jogged northward during the past few hours, the remnants are moving generally toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later today, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico until it makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm totals of 8 inches are anticipated. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or Tuesday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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