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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-15 10:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 64.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo to the southern Haitian Border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Grace reaches Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast as the system crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is expected on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning, in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Sunday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic ...4 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-15 10:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 150855 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 11(11) 17(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 21 8(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AGUADILLA PR 34 8 20(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN JUAN PR 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 23
2021-08-15 10:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150855 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 84.6W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the north-central Gulf coast from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Ochlockonee River, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later today, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico until it makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm totals of 8 inches are anticipated. Through Tuesday The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or Tuesday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Remnants of Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2021-08-15 10:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 150855 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF FRED WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X 5( 5) 14(19) 6(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 10(10) 15(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 5( 5) 18(23) 12(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 11(11) 41(52) 10(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-08-15 10:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150854 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 85.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.5N 87.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.3N 87.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.5N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 84.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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