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Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 21
2021-08-14 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142037 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 84.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be required for portions of this area tonight or Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected tonight through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression late tonight or on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected after the system re-develops. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through today... Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches. From Sunday night into Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. From Tuesday onward... Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through Sunday over parts of the western Florida peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Remnants of Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-14 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 142037 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF FRED WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 15(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Linda Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-14 22:32:45| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021
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Hurricane Linda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-08-14 22:32:10| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021
Hurricane Linda Public Advisory Number 19
2021-08-14 22:31:46| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...POWERFUL LINDA STILL WITH 130 MPH WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... Location: 19.1°N 117.0°W Max sustained: 130 mph Moving: WNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 950 mb Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021
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