je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-12 04:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120243 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.1N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
Tags: number
kevin
storm
advisory
Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-08-12 01:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 112347 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 71.6W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast to Cabo Frances Viejo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located by satellite-derived wind data near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 71.6 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola overnight, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday. Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is expected overnight. Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
advisory
fred
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-11 22:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112054 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that Kevin continues to have a large circulation, but that the deep convection is well-removed from the tropical storm's center. A blend of the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB suggest that the system remains with an intensity of 40 kt, which is also supported by 1723Z SATCON estimate of 38 kt. Kevin's short-term movement has been a bit more westward, perhaps due to pulling by the remaining deep convection restricted to its southwestern quadrant. The longer-term initial motion is estimated as 290 degrees at 9 kt. The tropical storm is primarily being steered along the southwestern periphery of a deep tropospheric ridge. However, as the deep convection ceases completely in a day or two, the system will increasingly be steered by the lower tropospheric flow. A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated until dissipation. The official track forecast is based upon the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), which is midway between the GFS and ECMWF global model solutions but substantially faster than the mesoscale hurricane model output. This new forecast is slightly westward of the previous advisory, due to the somewhat more westward position at the initial time. The tropical storm has already moved across the 26C SST isotherm and is moving toward even cooler water, drier air, and a more stable atmosphere. Additionally, Kevin is being affected by moderate NE tropospheric vertical wind shear. The large system should gradually weaken under these increasingly hostile conditions and it's likely that Kevin will become a remnant low by late Thursday. The official intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN statistical scheme and is nearly the same as the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 21.1N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.2N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.4N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 26.2N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0600Z 27.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 29.5N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tags: number
discussion
kevin
storm
Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-11 22:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 112052 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 18
2021-08-11 22:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112052 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...KEVIN CONTINUES AS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 117.8W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 117.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The tropical storm should continue toward the west-northwest or northwest at a slightly faster forward speed until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Kevin is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday morning and then a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells should diminish along the coast by late Thursday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tags: number
public
kevin
storm
Sites : [332] [333] [334] [335] [336] [337] [338] [339] [340] [341] [342] [343] [344] [345] [346] [347] [348] [349] [350] [351] next »