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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-11 04:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110236 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Tracking the center of Kevin this evening has been a challenge, as multiple low-level swirls appear to be rotating cyclonically around a broader mean circulation. The deeper convection remains mostly south of the estimated circulation center, though some cooler cloud tops did attempt to build northward, following a mesovortex seen on visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 0000 UTC were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was hovering between these values at 42 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates given the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated at 315/7 kt, attempting to follow the mean center that has several mesovorticies rotating around. A general northwest to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days as the large cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast. The latest track guidance was a bit more poleward compared to the previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit more poleward in the short term, choosing to remain close to the track guidance consensus. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear continues to keep Kevin's deepest convection downshear in the southern semicircle of the large circulation envelope. Over the next 24 hours, Kevin will also be crossing a sharp sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient, with sub 26 C SSTs not far away to the north. As the cyclone moves over these progressively cooler waters, gradual weakening should commence. Simulated IR brightness temperature data from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kevin will lose its remaining organized convection by 48-60 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows Kevin becoming a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 19.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-11 04:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-08-11 02:03:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 047 WTNT31 KNHC 110002 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 5A... Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 Corrected direction of motion in summary section. ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 66.1W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data from San Juan near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 66.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near the southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Data from the aircraft and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft and earlier surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km), mainly northeast of the center. During the past few hours, a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow observing station at Sandy Point on the western end of St. Croix. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was reported near Yabucoa in southeastern Puerto Rico. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-10 23:07:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 965 WTNT41 KNHC 102107 CCA TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 Corrected speed of motion in second paragraph. Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show that the disturbance has an organized convective pattern, with satellite intensity estimates of tropical-storm strength from SAB and TAFB. However, the circulation still appears to not be well defined, with the San Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar showing multiple mid-level centers and several convective cells with small-scale rotation. Based on this, the system will not be upgraded to a tropical cyclone at this time. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on mainly on continuity from earlier data. It should be noted that squalls with short-lived winds to tropical-storm force have been reported in bands over the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer the system generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h with some decrease in forward speed after 24 h. Beyond that time, a turn toward the northwest with an further decrease in forward speed is likely while the system moves near the western periphery of the ridge. There has been some increase in the spread of the track guidance from 72-120 h, with the GFS shifting to the right and the other models not changing very much. The new NHC forecast track has only minor changes from the previous one and lies near the various consensus models. Conditions continue to appear favorable for strengthening before the system reaches Hispaniola in about 18 h, although there may be dry air entraining into the system in the southeastern quadrant. The intensity forecast will follow the previous prediction in calling for the disturbance to become a tropical storm before landfall, followed by weakening to a depression. From 24-60 h, the models have come into better agreement that the system will encounter westerly vertical wind shear, and based on that and the possibility of land interaction the intensity forecast shows little re-intensification during that time. After 60 h, the models still disagree on the evolution of the upper-level winds near the system, but they are in better agreement that conditions over the eastern Gulf will become more conducive for development. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for intensification during that time. The new intensity forecast is almost the same as the previous one. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves over the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, and are expected to begin in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next several days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Florida beginning Friday through the weekend. However, given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast it is too soon to determine the timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 16.9N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 11/0600Z 17.8N 67.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0600Z 20.2N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 23.1N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-10 22:49:24| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
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