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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-19 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192039 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 Satellite images show that deep convection has increased in coverage near the low-level center during the last 6 hours, while the overall structure of the tropical cyclone has also improved. Based on the improved organization and consensus T-2.5 numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, making Rose the seventeenth named storm of the busy 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 and 2020 have had the seventeenth named storm on an earlier date. The 12-hour motion is north-northwest, or 330/14. However, Rose appears to be moving more in a northwest direction during the past few hours. This is probably the start of a northwest motion that should continue through day 4 as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. A turn to the north is predicted in about 5 days, as Rose comes under the influence of a strong mid-level trough approaching from the northwest. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the next day or so, with low wind shear, SSTs near 27C, and sufficient mid-level atmospheric moisture. Therefore, a little more strengthening is shown compared to the previous NHC forecast. The new NHC forecast is in agreement with the various consensus aids, but slightly below the SHIPS model, in deference to the global models which show a weaker cyclone. Westerly wind shear will likely increase in about 36 hours as a strong upper-level trough approaches from the northwest. Given that the cyclone is forecast to remain rather small, it will likely be vulnerable to the higher shear so weakening is forecast in the 36-72 h time period. Beyond day 3, a further increase in wind shear is expected to cause Rose to weaken to a tropical depression. Although not explicitly forecast, it is possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5 days if the shear is too much for the system to handle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.3N 29.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 22.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 23.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.7N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 26.7N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 28.7N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-19 22:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...PETER FENDING OFF STRONG WIND SHEAR... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 57.8W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 57.8 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Some slight weakening is expected on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday, and then the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192037 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...ROSE BECOMES THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE BUSY 2021 HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 29.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 29.9 West. Rose is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-19 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 192037 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 22:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 29.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N 31.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 33.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.7N 38.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 29.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
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