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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-18 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 ...ODETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.1N 65.1W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 65.1 West. Odette is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A turn toward the east and east-southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass well south of Atlantic Canada tonight through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-18 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182034 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 65.1W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 180SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 65.1W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 41.9N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 42.3N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.8N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.7N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 120SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 40.0N 47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...270NE 60SE 150SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 41.4N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 43.2N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 65.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Odette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-18 16:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 181449 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 2(15) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 1 29(30) 10(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HALIFAX NS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-18 16:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Strong shear of about 30 kt from the west-southwest continues to push all of Odette's deep convection well to the east of the surface center. The center itself lacks some definition, with multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common point. Odette is well on its way through the extratropical transition process, with cold air advection noted on the west side of the circulation, and a band of overcast clouds on the north side of the developing warm front. We're awaiting some new ASCAT data, which should arrive soon, and for now the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on continuity. Odette is being picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, and it is moving a little faster toward the northeast, or 055/15 kt. The cyclone should turn to the east-northeast and accelerate further later today, but then a significant slow down is expected on days 3 through 5 when Odette detaches from the mid-latitude flow and meanders to the southeast of Newfoundland. In contrast to yesterday, the global models are in much better agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has been hedged in the direction of the GFEX consensus aids, since the GFS and ECMWF global models should have a good handle on the behavior of an extratropical cyclone. The global models vary slightly on when extratropical transition will be complete, but the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it should happen by this evening or tonight. Baroclinic forcing will likely be the main contributor to Odette's expected strengthening over the next few days, and the intensity models, including the GFS and ECMWF global models, have been consistent in showing the peak winds reaching about 55 kt in 36-48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to occlude and lose its upper-air support in about 48 hours, which should lead to gradual weakening through the end of the 5-day forecast period. Odette's wind field is expected to expand significantly during the next few days while the system becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 38.5N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 40.0N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 41.8N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z 42.7N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1200Z 42.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0000Z 42.2N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 41.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z 41.3N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1200Z 42.7N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Odette Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-18 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 181448 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 ...ODETTE FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 67.3W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 67.3 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected by this evening. Odette should then slow down and turn toward the east and southeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass south of Atlantic Canada Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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