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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-09-21 04:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 210247 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-09-21 04:46:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 210246 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.4N 64.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 67.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 67.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 67.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.1N 67.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 62.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-09-21 04:45:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 210245 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC TUE SEP 21 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-09-21 04:45:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210245 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Although Rose's convective pattern does not appear to be as organized as it was earlier today, a couple of ASCAT overpasses this evening indicated that the tropical cyclone has strengthened since this morning. Both ASCAT-A and -B instruments detected 40-45 kt winds around the southeastern portion of the circulation, and the initial intensity was raised to 45 kt around 0000 UTC with the issuance of a Tropical Cyclone Update. That intensity is maintained for this advisory, and it is also in agreement with subjective Dvorak data T-numbers of 3.0 from TAFB and SAB. The ASCAT data also indicated that the center of Rose is located to the west of the previous estimates, near the northwestern edge of the convective mass noted in satellite imagery. As a result of the center re-location, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/13 kt. Although the short-term portion of the track forecast has been adjusted westward due to the more westward initial position, there has been no overall change in forecast track reasoning for this advisory. Rose should continue northwestward around the western portion of a strong subtropical ridge during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic should cause Rose to recurve northward, then northeastward, and finally east-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The dynamical models are in general agreement on this scenario but there are some differences in how sharp Rose will turn, and how fast it will move northeastward late in the period. The new NHC track forecast shows a somewhat sharper turn than the previous advisory to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Rose has likely reached its peak intensity as increasing shear and the entrainment of drier mid-level air are likely to cause weakening by this time tomorrow. Additional weakening is expected after that time as a further increase in shear is anticipated when Rose nears the aforementioned trough in 2 to 3 days. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is slightly stronger at 12 and 24 hours due to the higher initial intensity, but is unchanged after that time. Given the expected hostile environmental conditions, it would not be surprising to see Rose wither more quickly and degenerate into a remnant low sooner than indicated below. That is indicated by at least some of the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.9N 35.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.2N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 23.5N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 24.8N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 26.1N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 27.3N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 29.0N 38.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 30.5N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 8
2021-09-21 04:45:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210245 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 35.4W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 35.4 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Rose is forecast to turn north-northwestward to northward on Thursday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated overnight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday, and should continue during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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