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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-02 04:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 769 WTNT45 KNHC 020235 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Omar is battling strong northwesterly shear, as any burst of convection that tries to develop near the center is quickly pushed off well to the southeast of the cyclone's exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak CI values from UW-CIMSS, SAB and TAFB, as as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass showing similar winds compared to earlier today. These intermittent bursts of convection should sustain Omar as a tropical storm at least through early Wednesday. However, the shear is expected to get even stronger by late Wednesday, which should cause a weakening trend to begin around that time. By Thursday night, if not sooner, any organized deep convection is expected to have diminished, and Omar is forecast to become a remnant low. An approaching frontal system should absorb what is left of the remnants a couple of days later. The latest NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the various intensity aids. Omar continues to move east-northeast, now at 12 kt. The steering pattern is straightforward over the next few days, as the cyclone will be steered east-northeast then eastward around the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Later on in the forecast period, once Omar has become a remnant low, a turn to the northeast is expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 35.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 36.4N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 37.0N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 37.2N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 37.0N 60.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z 36.9N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 37.4N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 40.0N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-02 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 the center of Omar was located near 35.8, -70.0 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Omar Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-02 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...OMAR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.8N 70.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 70.0 West. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn to the east is forecast to occur Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is expected through Wednesday. A weakening trend should begin Wednesday night, and Omar is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-02 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020234 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 70.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 70.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 70.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 36.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 37.0N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.2N 62.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 37.0N 60.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.9N 58.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 37.4N 56.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 40.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-02 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 020234 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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