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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022037 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 ...OMAR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 65.7W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 65.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is forecast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Omar is likely to become a remnant low Thursday with dissipation by Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-02 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Omar Graphics
2020-09-02 16:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 14:49:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2020 14:49:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-02 16:48:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021448 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Although is seems as though we've been predicting it ad nauseam, the persistent, blistering shear has finally begun to dramatically affect the cyclone. What remains of the deep convective cloud mass is separated more than 100 miles east-southeast of the exposed surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB using the shear scene-type. Omar's winds should begin to decrease later tonight as the exposed surface center further decouples from the convective mass. A few of the large-scale models show Omar dissipating as soon as Friday, but for this NHC intensity forecast, I'll indicate weakening to a depression Thursday, followed by degeneration to a remnant low in 36 hours, similar to the multi-model consensus intensity aids and the LGEM. Omar's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 080/11 kt, and is being steered by the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies produced by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue on this general course through Friday. On Saturday, the remnant low is expected to slow a bit, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching frontal boundary moving away from the Canadian Maritimes. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 36.2N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 36.3N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 36.2N 58.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 36.4N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 37.0N 55.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-02 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BLISTERING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO AFFECT OMAR... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of Omar was located near 36.2, -67.4 with movement E at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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