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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF FRED MOVES INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Fred was located near 31.2, -85.2 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANDHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 85.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 85.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 170247 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBUS GA 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 30
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED MOVES INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 85.2W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia on Tuesday, across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday night, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression overnight or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in the Marianna, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts will continue over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours. SURF: Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 29A
2021-08-17 01:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 162350 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 700 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STORM SURGE THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 85.2W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF MARIANNA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to the Steinhatchee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Fred will move from western Georgia on Tuesday across the southern Appalachian Mountains to West Virginia by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at Marianna, Florida. A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was observed at an observing site near Bainbridge, Georgia. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Indian Pass including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Tropical Storm warning area for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast Alabama. The tornado threat will shift northward into parts of northeast Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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