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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-08-16 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160244 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Fred remains a sheared tropical cyclone however the overall organization of the system has improved somewhat since this afternoon. The low-level center is embedded near the western edge of the primary convective mass, and there has been an overall increase in deep convection near and to the east of the center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Fred this evening has reported that the pressure has fallen to 999 mb and it has found winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The plane found a very small area of slightly stronger flight-level and SFMR winds well east of the center, but those winds appear to have been associated with a strong convective cell and are likely not representative of the system's overall intensity. Fred is moving north-northwestward or 330/08 kt, and this motion should continue overnight. The dynamical model guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone will turn northward on Monday as it approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. A north- northeastward motion around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should commence by the time the system makes landfall, and this general heading should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. The dynamical models envelope did not change much and the latest consensus aids were essentially along the previous NHC track. As a result, little alteration was made to the previous official track forecast. The cyclone is located within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear. However, most of the intensity guidance continues to suggest that Fred will strengthen a little over the next 12-18 hours. As the system nears the northern Gulf coast, the SHIPS guidance forecasts some increase in shear and the intensity models reflect this by showing a leveling off of Fred's intensity at that time. After landfall, Fred should weaken quickly and dissipate over the Tennessee Valley in a little more than 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement within the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast, including portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland toward the Tennessee Valley, heavy rainfall and flooding may impact the southern and central Appalachians, and the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 27.3N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 28.6N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 30.2N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 32.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 34.4N 84.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 052 WTNT21 KNHC 160243 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO NAVARRE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/ JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 85.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 85.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 86.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.3N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.4N 84.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 85.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEGINNING MONDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 27.3, -85.9 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 26
2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 053 WTNT31 KNHC 160243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 85.9W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 85.9 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning by late Monday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through early Monday over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the day Monday from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 160243 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 13(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 34 1 12(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) APALACHICOLA 34 35 29(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) APALACHICOLA 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 62 8(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GFMX 290N 850W 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 27 53(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 38(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 870W 34 23 11(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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